How accurate these were
5 weeks · 1,280 player-weeks graded
4.66
avg miss (PPR)
5.16
last-season average
+0.50
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.50 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 93 games · lines as of 2026-10-16 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 22.0 | 95 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.84 | +2.7 | — |
| 2 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.8 | 96 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.77 | +2.4 | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.6 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +3.8 | — |
| 4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.6 | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.72 | +4.2 | — |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.6 | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +2.9 | — |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.3 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.1 | — |
| 7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.1 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +3.7 | — |
| 8 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.9 | 91 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.6 | — |
| 9 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.9 | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +2.1 | — |
| 10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.8 | 77 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +3.7 | — |
| 11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +3.6 | — |
| 12 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 19.6 | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +5.8 | — |
| 13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.5 | 93 | 6.5 | 1 | — | 0.61 | +1.7 | — |
| 14 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.5 | 81 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.3 | — |
| 15 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.2 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +6.3 | — |
| 16 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 18.8 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.64 | -0.5 | — |
| 17 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 18.6 | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +4.4 | — |
| 18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 18.6 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +2.4 | — |
| 19 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 18.6 | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +5.6 | — |
| 20 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.4 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.67 | +1.9 | — |
| 21 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.3 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +4.5 | — |
| 22 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.1 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +4.4 | — |
| 23 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.0 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +1.6 | — |
| 24 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 17.9 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +6.4 | A- |
| 25 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 17.8 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +4.9 | — |
| 26 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.7 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.50 | -0.1 | — |
| 27 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 17.7 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -0.1 | — |
| 28 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 17.6 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +1.2 | — |
| 29 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.6 | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +3.4 | — |
| 30 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 17.6 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +6.6 | — |
| 31 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 17.3 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -2.1 | — |
| 32 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 17.3 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +4.4 | — |
| 33 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 17.3 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +6.4 | — |
| 34 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 17.2 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +8.3 | — |
| 35 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +2.9 | — |
| 36 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.8 | — |
| 37 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 17.1 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.8 | — |
| 38 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 17.0 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.4 | — |
| 39 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 16.9 | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.4 | — |
| 40 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 16.9 | 79 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.59 | +4.0 | — |
| 41 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 16.8 | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.45 | +6.3 | — |
| 42 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 16.4 | 77 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +3.4 | — |
| 43 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 16.3 | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +5.4 | — |
| 44 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 16.3 | 77 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.53 | +3.4 | — |
| 45 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 16.2 | 78 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.50 | +5.9 | — |
| 46 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 16.1 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +5.0 | — |
| 47 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 16.1 | 64 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +2.7 | — |
| 48 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 16.1 | 75 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +3.6 | — |
| 49 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 15.9 | 76 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +5.3 | — |
| 50 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.8 | 73 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +2.9 | — |
| 51 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.8 | 74 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +2.9 | — |
| 52 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 15.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +2.3 | — |
| 53 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.6 | 71 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.51 | +0.9 | — |
| 54 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 15.5 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +2.6 | — |
| 55 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 15.3 | 71 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +5.0 | — |
| 56 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 15.3 | 70 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +4.4 | — |
| 57 | Josh DownsWR · IND | 15.3 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +7.2 | — |
| 58 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 15.2 | 74 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.57 | +4.3 | — |
| 59 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 15.2 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +5.3 | — |
| 60 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 15.2 | 72 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +4.6 | — |
| 61 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.1 | 67 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +0.4 | — |
| 62 | George PickensWR · DAL | 15.1 | 68 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +0.4 | — |
| 63 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 15.0 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +2.5 | — |
| 64 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 14.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +0.5 | — |
| 65 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 14.7 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +1.0 | — |
| 66 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 14.7 | 69 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +2.2 | — |
| 67 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.6 | 68 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +3.7 | — |
| 68 | A.J. BrownWR · NE | 14.6 | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.0 | — |
| 69 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 14.5 | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +3.9 | — |
| 70 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 14.5 | 72 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +3.5 | — |
| 71 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 14.4 | 62 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +1.0 | — |
| 72 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 14.4 | 57 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +1.0 | — |
| 73 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 14.2 | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +3.3 | — |
| 74 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 14.2 | 64 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +3.0 | — |
| 75 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 14.2 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.55 | +2.0 | — |
| 76 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.1 | 70 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.45 | -0.6 | — |
| 77 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 14.1 | 69 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +3.2 | — |
| 78 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.1 | 68 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | -0.6 | — |
| 79 | George PickensWR · DAL | 14.0 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.51 | -0.7 | — |
| 80 | Matthew GoldenWR · GB | 14.0 | 66 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +8.7 | — |
| 81 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 14.0 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +1.8 | — |
| 82 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 13.9 | 62 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +4.1 | — |
| 83 | Jordan AddisonWR · MIN | 13.9 | 63 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +5.1 | — |
| 84 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 13.8 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +3.5 | — |
| 85 | D.J. MooreWR · BUF | 13.8 | 65 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +4.5 | — |
| 86 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 13.7 | 59 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.3 | A- |
| 87 | Stefon DiggsWR · WAS | 13.7 | 58 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.7 | — |
| 88 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 13.7 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.54 | +0.3 | — |
| 89 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 13.6 | 59 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +1.1 | — |
| 90 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 13.5 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.6 | — |
| 91 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 13.5 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +3.2 | — |
| 92 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 13.4 | 64 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +2.3 | — |
| 93 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 13.4 | 53 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.61 | 0.0 | — |
| 94 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 13.3 | 57 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.52 | +3.2 | — |
| 95 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 13.2 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.50 | -0.7 | — |
| 96 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 13.2 | 62 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +2.3 | — |
| 97 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 13.1 | 63 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +2.0 | — |
| 98 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 13.0 | 61 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +2.2 | — |
| 99 | Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | 12.9 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +2.6 | — |
| 100 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 12.9 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | -0.9 | — |
| 101 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 12.9 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +1.7 | — |
| 102 | DK MetcalfWR · PIT | 12.8 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.40 | +1.9 | A |
| 103 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 12.8 | 59 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +2.1 | — |
| 104 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 12.8 | 61 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +2.0 | — |
| 105 | Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI | 12.7 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +4.8 | — |
| 106 | Parker WashingtonWR · JAX | 12.6 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +2.3 | — |
| 107 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 12.6 | 60 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.36 | +2.5 | — |
| 108 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 12.6 | 57 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +1.8 | — |
| 109 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 12.6 | 59 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.37 | +2.0 | — |
| 110 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 12.6 | 55 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +1.8 | — |
| 111 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 12.5 | 53 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.46 | +3.6 | — |
| 112 | Matthew GoldenWR · GB | 12.5 | 58 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +7.2 | — |
| 113 | Michael WilsonWR · ARI | 12.5 | 59 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.35 | +1.0 | A- |
| 114 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 12.5 | 55 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +0.3 | — |
| 115 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 12.4 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | -1.6 | — |
| 116 | Xavier WorthyWR · KC | 12.4 | 50 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.49 | +5.0 | A- |
| 117 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 12.4 | 56 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +2.5 | — |
| 118 | Matthew GoldenWR · GB | 12.4 | 56 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.39 | +7.0 | — |
| 119 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 12.4 | 53 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.43 | -1.6 | — |
| 120 | Jalen CokerWR · CAR | 12.3 | 59 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +4.7 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →