Survivor Grid
Win probability for every team, every week. Weeks with a posted DraftKings line use that price directly; the rest are projected from each team's season win total. The column that matters is Cost Later — what spending a team this week does to your odds of surviving the weeks after it.
Week 6 briefing
Week 6 Survivor: LA over ARI
LA is the pick at home. The 86.3% win probability comes from a posted line, and it is comfortably the best available number this week. More importantly, using LA does not burn a team the forward path needs more.
NE is the clearest hold. Its current home matchup with NYJ carries a 74.8% win probability from a posted line, but the plan specifically wants NE in Week 8. The Week 8 NE-NYJ number is a projection, not a posted price.
BUF is also worth preserving for Week 11 against LV. That 71.0% win probability is projected, not posted.
The working route after LA:
• Week 7: DEN
• Week 8: NE
• Week 9: SEA
• Week 10: JAX
• Week 11: BUF
That six-week path is projected to survive at 40.8%. Naturally, the later legs can move before their markets are posted; this is a planning map, not a commitment ceremony.
IND is the other unused name near the top this week, at home against TEN with a 74.1% win probability from a posted line. That is a sizable step down from LA without providing a better future setup.
Pick: LA. Save NE for Week 8 and BUF for Week 11.
Best path from Week 6
survives all 6: 39.5%
LA86%vs ARI-12.5
HOU75%vs NYG-7.0
NE87%@ MIA-15.1
SEA86%vs ARI-14.7
JAX86%@ TEN-14.4
BUF95%vs MIA-22.2Solved across the next 6 weeks so a team isn't spent early when it's worth more later. Beyond that the projections get too soft to plan around.
Week 6 board
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Win % | Pick % | EV | Cost later | Used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LApick | vs ARI | -12.5 | 86% | 38.9% | 1.04 | -0.0% | |
 KC | vs LAC | -7.5 | 79% | 6.2% | 1.00 | 3.3% | |
 SF | vs WAS | -7.5 | 78% | 7.6% | 0.98 | 3.9% | |
| NE | vs NYJ | -7.5 | 74% | 18.8% | 0.90 | 5.7% | |
 IND | vs TEN | -7.0 | 74% | 17.4% | 0.90 | 5.6% | |
| BUF | @ LV | -4.5 | 66% | 2.8% | 0.83 | 13.4% | |
 BAL | @ CLE | -3.5 | 64% | 1.1% | 0.82 | 10.0% | |
 CAR | @ PHI | -3.5 | 62% | 1.1% | 0.80 | 11.0% | |
| SEA | @ DEN | -2.5 | 58% | 0.4% | 0.75 | 13.3% | |
 PIT | @ TB | -2.5 | 57% | 1.3% | 0.73 | 13.3% | |
| JAX | vs HOU | -2.5 | 56% | 2.6% | 0.71 | 14.3% | |
 GB | vs DAL | -1.5 | 52% | 0.3% | 0.67 | 15.6% | |
 CHI | @ ATL | -1.5 | 51% | 0.2% | 0.66 | 16.1% | |
 NO | @ NYG | -1.5 | 50% | 0.1% | 0.65 | 16.4% | |
 NYG | vs NO | +1.5 | 50% | 0.9% | 0.63 | 16.8% | |
 ATL | vs CHI | +1.5 | 49% | 0.1% | 0.63 | 17.1% | |
 DAL | @ GB | +1.5 | 48% | 0.0% | 0.61 | 17.6% | |
| HOU | @ JAX | +2.5 | 44% | 0.0% | 0.56 | 20.5% | |
 TB | vs PIT | +2.5 | 43% | 0.0% | 0.55 | 19.9% | |
 DEN | vs SEA | +2.5 | 42% | 0.1% | 0.54 | 20.4% | |
 PHI | vs CAR | +3.5 | 38% | 0.1% | 0.48 | 22.2% | |
 CLE | vs BAL | +3.5 | 36% | 0.0% | 0.46 | 23.2% | |
 LV | vs BUF | +4.5 | 34% | 0.0% | 0.44 | 23.8% | |
 TEN | @ IND | +7.0 | 26% | 0.0% | 0.33 | 27.6% | |
 NYJ | @ NE | +7.5 | 26% | 0.0% | 0.33 | 27.8% | |
 WAS | @ SF | +7.5 | 22% | 0.0% | 0.29 | 29.2% | |
 LAC | @ KC | +7.5 | 21% | 0.0% | 0.27 | 29.9% | |
 ARI | @ LA | +12.5 | 14% | 0.0% | 0.18 | 33.2% |
- 86%LApickvs ARI · -12.5
- Pick
- 38.9%
- EV
- 1.04
- Cost later
- -0.0%
- 79%KCvs LAC · -7.5
- Pick
- 6.2%
- EV
- 1.00
- Cost later
- 3.3%
- 78%SFvs WAS · -7.5
- Pick
- 7.6%
- EV
- 0.98
- Cost later
- 3.9%
- 74%NEvs NYJ · -7.5
- Pick
- 18.8%
- EV
- 0.90
- Cost later
- 5.7%
- 74%INDvs TEN · -7.0
- Pick
- 17.4%
- EV
- 0.90
- Cost later
- 5.6%
- 66%BUF@ LV · -4.5
- Pick
- 2.8%
- EV
- 0.83
- Cost later
- 13.4%
- 64%BAL@ CLE · -3.5
- Pick
- 1.1%
- EV
- 0.82
- Cost later
- 10.0%
- 62%CAR@ PHI · -3.5
- Pick
- 1.1%
- EV
- 0.80
- Cost later
- 11.0%
- 58%SEA@ DEN · -2.5
- Pick
- 0.4%
- EV
- 0.75
- Cost later
- 13.3%
- 57%PIT@ TB · -2.5
- Pick
- 1.3%
- EV
- 0.73
- Cost later
- 13.3%
- 56%JAXvs HOU · -2.5
- Pick
- 2.6%
- EV
- 0.71
- Cost later
- 14.3%
- 52%GBvs DAL · -1.5
- Pick
- 0.3%
- EV
- 0.67
- Cost later
- 15.6%
- 51%CHI@ ATL · -1.5
- Pick
- 0.2%
- EV
- 0.66
- Cost later
- 16.1%
- 50%NO@ NYG · -1.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.65
- Cost later
- 16.4%
- 50%NYGvs NO · +1.5
- Pick
- 0.9%
- EV
- 0.63
- Cost later
- 16.8%
- 49%ATLvs CHI · +1.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.63
- Cost later
- 17.1%
- 48%DAL@ GB · +1.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.61
- Cost later
- 17.6%
- 44%HOU@ JAX · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.56
- Cost later
- 20.5%
- 43%TBvs PIT · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.55
- Cost later
- 19.9%
- 42%DENvs SEA · +2.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.54
- Cost later
- 20.4%
- 38%PHIvs CAR · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.1%
- EV
- 0.48
- Cost later
- 22.2%
- 36%CLEvs BAL · +3.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.46
- Cost later
- 23.2%
- 34%LVvs BUF · +4.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.44
- Cost later
- 23.8%
- 26%TEN@ IND · +7.0
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.33
- Cost later
- 27.6%
- 26%NYJ@ NE · +7.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.33
- Cost later
- 27.8%
- 22%WAS@ SF · +7.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.29
- Cost later
- 29.2%
- 21%LAC@ KC · +7.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.27
- Cost later
- 29.9%
- 14%ARI@ LA · +12.5
- Pick
- 0.0%
- EV
- 0.18
- Cost later
- 33.2%
EV is your win probability against how much of the field is expected to survive the week — above 1.00 you gain ground on the average entry, below it you lose ground even when your team wins. That is why the biggest favourite is so often the wrong pick: the crowd is already there. Pick % via SurvivorGrid, averaged across several public pools.
Market power ratings
SF+9.4BUF+8.6KC+7.6BAL+6.5
MIN+6.1JAX+5.3SEA+4.9LA+4.9NE+4.7DEN+4.3CHI+4.1
DET+2.6
CIN+2.5GB+1.2DAL-0.3PIT-0.4LV-0.7CAR-0.8ATL-1.2HOU-1.8IND-2.1PHI-2.6CLE-2.9NYG-3.7NYJ-4.6NO-4.7LAC-5.1TB-5.3WAS-5.6ARI-8.1TEN-10.7
MIA-12.0Points better or worse than an average team, fitted so each club's projected wins match its posted season win total.